June was another successful month for our portfolio. Heading into July, the third quarter is historically the weakest quarter of the year for the markets. Trading volumes during this time are typically lower as many professional investors are away from their offices; this absenteeism and lack of activity can create volatility. After having a successful first half of the year, at this point we would not be surprised to see a pullback or correction in the markets.
Economically, things in North America, and now globally, continue to improve. The economic expansion began in 2009 in North America. In 2012, following their financial crisis Europe’s economy has also improved. Now we are starting to see some of the Asian and many of the emerging market countries economies beginning to im- prove.
We have now entered the seasonally weakest six months of the year. The recurring theme on Wall Street is “Sell in May and Go Away”. Histori- cally the 6 month period from May to November produces a smaller gain than the stronger 6 month period from November to May.
The first quarter of 2014 was a strong quarter for the S&P/TSX especially compared to the S&P 500. This comes as no surprise to us. Rather than trying to forecast where markets are headed we use money flow indicators to show us where the money is heading.